Will my child be a National Merit® Scholarship finalist?

Imagine this scenario.  Two students from the same state have identical Total PSAT/NMSQT® scores from the October 2015 test. One is a National Merit Scholarship® Semifinalist, and the other is not.

Because NMSC cut-off scores have traditionally varied significantly from state to state, it’s not unusual for students with the same PSAT scores in different states to have different outcomes. For example, in Wyoming it only took a Selection Index of 202 to be named a NMS Semifinalist this year, but in New Jersey it took 225. Despite these inequities across states, however, cut-off scores have been consistently applied to all students living in a particular state for as long as most people can remember.

But with the way in which the NMSC Selection Index has been computed for the 2015 or ‘redesigned’ PSAT, it is certainly possible that students residing in the same state with identical total scores could have very different outcomes for the 2017 competition.

So how might this happen?

First, it’s important to break the habit of thinking of NMSC Selection Index (SI) and Total PSAT Score as one and the same. It’s no longer true.

The new Selection Index is the sum of three scores—math, writing/language, and reading—each on a scale of 8 to 38 multiplied by two.  An alternative method of computing is to double the overall ERW Score, add the Math, and then drop the zero.  In this context, the zero is out of place and adds nothing. 

Both methods work. And both methods show how superior math students might be finding their particular skill slightly suppressed by both the new scale and the SI computation.

“Because the new Selection Index formula gives more weight to the verbal score, we’ll see two students with the same PSAT score but different SI,” explained Bruce Reed, of Compass Education Group.  “In this one sense, the new scale ‘punishes’ the very high math scorer who is ‘capped’ at 760. That student might have earned a score as high as 80 last year.”

Here is an example of how the formula also works against math students.  Two students have Total PSAT Scores of 1460 out of a possible 1520.  Student A has 760 in Math and 700 in EWR, while Student B has 700 in Math and 760 in EWR.  Drilling down to individual test scores, Student A has 38, 35, and 35. To arrive at the SI, the scores are added together and multiplied by 2 for a total of 216. Student B has scores of 35, 38 and 38, resulting in a Selection Index of (35 + 38 + 38) x 2 = 222.

With a span of six points, it’s easy to imagine a situation in which Student A, the outstanding math student, would not receive an invitation to compete as a National Merit Scholarship semifinalist, while Student B would. And the difference could get even closer in many circumstances.

There is a good deal of speculation about what the new test and scale will do to the NMSC cut-off scores both nationally for Commended Scholars and state-by-state for Semifinalists. The lower ceiling on scores—38 as opposed to 40—has caused a corresponding drop of the Selection Index ceiling from 240 down to 228.  This doesn’t necessarily mean, however, that state cut-off scores will drop by 12 full points.

Other forces come into play including the general upward drift of scores.

“Scores for most students are higher on the 2015 PSAT scale than they would have been on the 2014 PSAT scale,” said Reed.  “But at the highest levels, scores are lower—a 240 in 2014 could be no higher than 228 in 2015. This conflicting set of forces is what makes the National Merit scores particularly hard to predict this year. It’s possible we’ll see cut-offs in some states rise and in other states fall.”

Out of this confusion, different approaches to forecasting National Merit status have appeared. Many families are looking at percentiles to make judgements about likelihood of earning “Commended Scholar” or “Semifinalist” designation. And to arrive at these estimates, families are using percentiles derived from the National Representative Sample, which is prominently displayed on the front of the score report, when they should be using the “Test User” sample—a more difficult to find number provided to individual students online after they complete registration with the College Board.

And then there are the concordance tables generated by the College Board, which compare 2014 PSAT scores to 2015 PSAT scores. But without having a feel for where the Commended Scholar cut-off—top 50,000 scorers—might come, it’s a little difficult to extrapolate future commended status. Add to this the politics and vagaries of how the National Merit Scholarship Corporations determines state cut-offs, and the projections become even more difficult except at the very highest total score levels.

According to Bruce Reed, “Both percentiles and concordances have weaknesses when making comparisons to last year’s cut scores. In general, using percentiles to estimate the Commended cut-off gives a lower estimate than concording between old scores and new. Statistically, they should give similar results, so there appear to be inconsistencies in some of the College Board's preliminary numbers.”

Once you get past all the numbers, percentiles, and projections, the real decision of who will or will not be a National Merit Semifinalist rests in the hands of NMSC corporate executives who largely operate behind closed doors. Now may be an opportunity for them to reconsider how the program works and rethink state cut scores.  

But regardless of how they decide to proceed for next year’s competition, unless something changes between now and next fall when 34,000 test-takers will be granted Commended Scholar status and an additional 16,000 students will earn Semifinalist status, two students living in the same state and maybe even attending the same high school with the same Total PSAT scores could easily have very different outcomes—one a merit scholar and one not. 

Thank you again to Bruce Reed, of the Compass Education Group, for helping sort this out.  

And the bottom line:  the crystal ball method might be somewhat more enlightening for this question than the College Board’s glitzy marketing spin!

Interpreting the ‘new’ PSAT/NMSQT® score reports

Students lucky enough to navigate the College Board website and successfully retrieve PSAT/NMSQ test scores from October are probably wondering what to make of the dizzying number of scores. As part of the redesign and repackaging of SAT-related products, the College Board has spun off no less than 16 separate scores to consider and stress over.  Among these are a total score, a math score, an evidence-based reading and writing (ERW) score, “Nationally Representative Sample Percentile(s),” three test scores, two cross-test scores, seven subtest scores, and a National Merit® Scholarship Corporation Selection Index. 

And each of these sets of scores has a different score range. The total score ranges from 320 to 1520; math and ERW scores range from 160 to 760; test scores and cross-test scores range from 8 to 38; subscores range from 1 to 15; and the NMSC Selection Index ranges from 48 to 228.

Families anxious to make decisions about future testing and those curious about how the new NMSC Selection Index might translate into future merit scholarship designations are naturally asking which scores are most important and what exactly they mean.

“Unfortunately, these overhauled reports feel overwrought and confusing. While they offer a vast array of measures—some helpful, some less so—and newly created subscores, they fall short of providing clear takeaways most students are seeking,” explained Bruce Reed, of Compass Education Group.  “Aside from strongly encouraging students to now practice on Khan Academy, the new PSAT reports are not as obviously actionable as users need them to be.”

So what can students take away from their PSAT experience?

First, be assured that no college will ever see these test results. They are for your use only. So relax. 

Next, be careful about assuming too much about the relationship between the new PSAT scores and the old PSAT or SAT. For a number of different reasons, the College Board is making the new PSAT scores look like SAT scores by using three-digits instead of two.

According to Bruce Reed, “While the two new tests share a common scale, they occupy slightly different ranges on that single scale.”

And that’s where confusion sets in.  SAT will continue to theoretically span the 200-800 range, while PSAT is staggered down to 160 to 760, to reflect the test’s slightly lower difficulty level. It’s not that some test-takers are incapable of exceeding a 760, it’s just that the PSAT doesn’t claim to verify that.

But, the shifting down of the scale may lead to the wrong assumption that the scores themselves must also shift down.  In fact, the exact opposite is more likely to be true.

“Interestingly (and conveniently for the College Board), nearly all PSAT scores are ‘up’ this year,” explains Reed. “But this has nothing to do with a jump in overall student achievement. It doesn’t necessarily mean scores are ‘better’ than they were last year, and it certainly doesn’t mean they are ‘better’ than ACT scores despite their appearance.”

Reed describes the phenomenon in terms of a “statistical tailwind,” which is occurring in the order of roughly 20 to 30 points per section for most students. This has occurred partly because the test is new and partly because of the elimination of the “guessing penalty.”  Think in terms of the effect random guessing might have on the very lowest end of the scale.

Next, despite suggestions to the contrary, the scores in and of themselves do not provide clear guides as to which test to take—ACT or SAT—to fulfill college entrance requirements. Out of concern for already-announced scoring issues and timelines as well as uneasiness related to the general unknowns of the new SAT, most counselors and test prep experts are still suggesting students take the ACT.  Since the first scores from the new SAT won’t be available until late May, the most useful guide—a concordance table comparing scores from the two tests—won’t be published until after the first two administrations of the new SAT. So that won’t help. 

The College Board has also prepared a series of concordance tables comparing the 2014 PSAT with the 2015 PSAT.  While the comparisons may be interesting, these tables are not without their limits, as they provide no direct comparison to the ACT.

To approximate a comparison and provide a general guide, Compass Prep analyzed all available research and used internal data to create a table comparing 2015 PSAT and ACT scores. While not a perfect predictor of success on either ACT or new SAT, the table does provide a sense of which students might do better on which test. Note that while most students will likely find their PSAT and ACT scores intersect somewhere in the purple “Judgment Call” band, some may discover that one test is actually better suited to them.

Finally, in absence of comparable test scales and relevant concordance tables, students may derive some information as to their performance from “percentiles.”  Keep in mind, however, percentile scores from the PSAT cannot be directly compared to ACT percentiles, so their usefulness is limited.

“The College Board now provides two types of percentiles: National Representative Sample and Test User. Without going into details, the National Sample represents a form of percentile-inflation,” said Reed. “The former will always be higher than the latter, but it’s the latter, which students can only access online and after considerable effort, that should be used when comparing to actual test-takers.”

Again, percentiles simply provide a fast glimpse into how well a student did relative to other PSAT test-takers and are limited in terms of how well the project success on other tests or the likelihood of becoming a National Merit Scholarship semifinalist.

These are difficult issues to sort out—even for the experts. And so far, the College Board has driven the conversation.  Many thanks to Bruce Reed, of Compass Education Group, for cutting through some of the College Board marketing information and putting the new PSAT score reports into perspective. 

Monday:  Will my child be a National Merit Scholarship finalist?

2015 PSAT/NMSQT scores debut tomorrow—January 7

Results from the first test in the newly redesigned College Board suite of assessments officially made their way to high school counseling offices today, and PSAT/NMSQT® scores from October will publicly debut for student review tomorrow—January 7, 2016. 

After a disappointing delay in score delivery for December, the College Board has developed an aggressive marketing plan targeted to juniors who took the 2015 PSAT and want to access their scores for purposes of preparing for the SAT® or simply determining potential eligibility for a National Merit® Scholarship.

 

And the marketing seems to have two objectives: to direct student interest away from ACT and back to College Board products and  to entice students into providing substantial personal information through a robust registration and tracking system operated under the BigFuture™ banner of college planning tools.

According to the College Board, test-takers who provided information that is easily linked to a student account they’ve already opened (a little over 50 percent of the students who took the test) should receive a notice that their scores are available between January 7 and January 9.  For “load-bearing” reasons, the notifications are being split up by thirds, but all students can start checking for scores on January 7, regardless of email timing.

Because students don’t register for the PSAT, there’s no guarantee that a specific answer grid could be tied to a specific online account. But based on school, birthdate, last name, and a combination of factors, the College Board is able to use their powerful tracking system to match a majority of students automatically. This will enable students to see their results when they log in or create an account—no additional information or “code” will be necessary to retrieve scores. In cases, where the College Board was unable to match the grid to an existing account, students can get a unique access code from their school counselors.

Less anxious students can wait for paper scores to be delivered to high schools and distributed through whatever mechanism the school has developed for this purpose. Paper score reports should be available by the end of January.

But back up a moment. Note that only students with College Board accounts will be able to access online scores now. No account—no scores at least until the high school has the time to hand them out.

And that account places students on the College Board radar system, which not only facilitates registration for future SATs but also potentially provides a useful set of data, which can be sold to colleges for recruitment purposes.

To retrieve scores, students will log in to their accounts where they should find results from the October test.  The total score for PSAT/NMSQT ranges from 320 to 1520. It is the sum of their Math section score added to their Evidence-Based Reading and Writing section score. This is the score the student would likely receive on the SAT had they taken the SAT on the same day they took the PSAT/NMSQT (note that the SAT total score ranges from 400 to 1600). 

When students click “View Details,” they will be taken to more detailed score reports including individual test scores, cross-test scores and subscores. Each has a different relationship to the total score, and each has a different score range. For the record, cross-test scores are derived from questions related to science or history/social studies on the Reading Test, the Writing and Language Test and the Math Test. 

This brings us to the National Merit Scholarship Program.  Beginning with the 2015 administration of the newly designed PSAT/NMSQT, Selection Index scores will be calculated by doubling the sum of the Reading, the Writing and Language, and the Math Test scores (Selection Index scores will range between 24 and 228). This number will be used to determine 50,000 high-scoring participants who qualify for program recognition.  From this group, 16,000 will be designated as “semifinalists” next September.  For more information, students are welcome to refer to the Official Student Guide to the PSAT/NMSQT booklet or the NMSC website.

According to materials circulated by the College Board, a preliminary concordance of 2014 and 2015 PSAT/NMSQT scores should be available on January 6 (today). It will remain preliminary until May when the SAT concordance is finalized.

Once the initial information provided on the score report has been digested, it’s time to consider the real value of the PSAT, which is to help students prepare for college entrance exams—the SAT and the ACT. Thanks to a partnership with Khan Academy, students will be able to link their PSAT scores to practice materials which will support skill-building across tests. Although targeted to the SAT, the similarity between the redesigned SAT and the ACT should help students prepare more efficiently for both tests.

As a partner with the College Board, Khan Academy will offer “official” SAT practice at no cost. Students will have access to thousands of SAT test questions and four full-length SATs.  SAT practice can be accessed on a computer or by using the Daily SAT Practice app or Khan Academy app on any mobile device.  In addition, Kahn Academy will create personalized learning plans for each student based on test performance. By linking the College Board and Khan Academy accounts, all SAT “suite” results can be sent to customize practice using actual results.

To begin the linking process, students must 

1.  Log in or create a Khan Academy account
2. When prompted, agree to link the Khan Academy and College Board accounts. Students will then be directed to collegeboard.org
3. Sign in or create a College Board account
4. When prompted, hit “Send” to authorize account linking
5. Students may then start working on Official SAT practice on Khan Academy

In the spirit of any test prep is useful test prep, assume that skills developed here may very well be transferable to other assessments.

To support the introduction of test results and encourage use of Khan Academy, school counseling offices have been provided with access to a number of resources they will be sharing over the coming weeks. In the meantime, PSAT/NMSQT scores will officially be available to students starting on January 7 and the race to the “new” SAT begins.

2016 FAFSA kicks off

In case you missed the email, the online FAFSA application went “live” a couple of hours after the Waterford Crystal Times Square New Year's Eve Ball hit bottom at midnight on January 1st. 

And if you haven’t thought about financial aid in a few years, you may be surprised.  FAFSA is now housed in a user-friendly website with a number of snazzy new features, including mobile optimization and instructional videos that should make the 2016-17 FAFSA experience better than ever.

So there’s no excuse for delay.  It’s time to sharpen the pencils, put fresh batteries in the calculator, dig out tax returns, and organize bank records to tackle the single most important form necessary to make yourself eligible for millions in federal aid.

Because the best time to file the FAFSA is right NOW!

With thousands of families competing for money each year, you need to submit your application as early as possible. The earlier the FAFSA is received, the earlier it will get processed, and the better positioned you will be for grants and scholarships. 

The U.S. Department of Education is the largest provider of student financial aid in the nation The Office of Federal Student Aid annually makes available more than $150 billion in federal grants, loans, and work-study funds to more than 13 million students paying for college or career school.

And much of this money is allocated on a first come, first served basis.

But each year, about 2 million students who would have qualified for federal financial aid miss out because they didn’t file FAFSA. Get the picture?

So get started by applying for an FSA ID—a username and password combination that allows you to sign your FAFSA electronically.  It’s personal and it’s free!

Getting an FSA ID before you begin the FAFSA could prevent processing delays, and it only takes a few minutes to apply.  Note that the FSA ID replaced the Federal Student Aid PIN on May 10, 2015.  If you already have a PIN, you can link your information to your new FSA ID by entering your PIN while registering for the FSA ID. This may save some time.  If you’ve forgotten your PIN, no worries. You can either enter the answer to your PIN “challenge question” during the FSA ID registration process or you just create your FSA ID from scratch.  A PIN is not required to create an FSA ID.

Once your information is verified with the Social Security Administration (one to three days from the date you apply), you will be able to use your FSA ID to access personal information on fafsa.gov, StudentAid.gov/login, StudentLoans.gov and other related websites. Most importantly, you’ll be able to start completing your FAFSA.

Begin by organizing your documents. You need Social Security numbers, driver’s license, income tax return, bank statements, and investment records. The one thing you don’t need for FAFSA is cash! Everything about the FAFSA is free, so if a website asks for payment, you are not dealing with the official FAFSA site.

Next, carefully select the school year for which you are applying for financial aid.  If you plan to attend college between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017, choose the 2016-17 school year option.  This is a common mistake, so be careful. If you are applying for a summer session, contact the financial aid office at your college to find out which school year you should select when you complete your FAFSA.

While a paper application is still an option (and can help as a tool for drafting responses off-line), it is recommended that you complete the web-based form and submit electronically to save time. If you have no internet access at home, libraries have online connections and schools usually will make accommodations to support online FAFSA filing. Ask your school counselor or college/career center specialist for help if necessary.

But keep in mind that if you complete the FAFSA in a public place, you need to take extra steps to protect your privacy.  Don’t walk away from the computer and be sure to completely sign off once you’re finished your work.

It’s hard to overstate the importance of early FAFSA filing.  Money is seldom an unlimited resource, and colleges are experiencing financial problems like the rest of us. They have deadlines and bureaucratic procedures to follow in the preparation of aid packages. And many of these deadlines come much sooner than you think.

Also, don’t delay just because you haven’t filed taxes yet or if you know you won’t have enough information to file taxes until closer to the April deadline. Use last year’s returns and plan to amend later. Corrections to the original 2016-17 FAFSA may be submitted up until September 13, 2017.  

But if you want to file your taxes first, keep in mind that the IRS Retrieval Tool is a very handy device.  If you meet eligibility requirements and have already filed, the tool will allow you to access the IRS tax return information needed to complete the FAFSA and will transfer that data directly into your FAFSA from the IRS website (note that if you don’t use the IRS Retrieval Tool, colleges may require that you submit a copy of your tax return or your parents’ tax return if you’re a dependent student).

Finally, please don’t delay because you’re worried about listing your colleges for the world to see on your FAFSA.  Starting with the 2016-17 FAFSA, the U.S. Department of Education will no longer share your list of colleges with the schools receiving your FAFSA data. Keep in mind, however, that your list will still be available to state aid agencies and some states require that students list an in-state public college first to qualify for state aid.

But don’t use this as a delaying tactic.  Just list in-state public colleges first on the FAFSA to ensure eligibility.

Because, “WIGIG—when it’s gone, it’s gone.” 

If you need financial aid, apply for it especially if you checked the little box on the college application indicating you intend to file.  Colleges will be looking for the paperwork to begin working on your aid package.

Get FAFSA started now. Why wait?